The study provides an overview of the main models for medium and long-term forecasting of natural gas prices, and also considers the SCANER Model and Information Complex of the Institute of Energy Research, Russian Academy of Sciences, currently used to forecast the energy sector in Russia and the world, as well as the gas market. As a result of the analysis, the main classes of models were identified, as well as their advantages and disadvantages in predicting gas prices - balance models, econometric models and expert systems, stochastic models. The balance sheet forecasting model currently used in Russia provides an opportunity for better risk management and strategic decisions, however, when forecasting gas prices, it is necessary to take into account pricing models for natural gas, if pricing under contracts is carried out with reference to energy prices, it is possible to use a multi-parameter model market and increased volatility in natural gas prices, the ARCH model may be a priority.
Translated title of the contributionFORECASTING NATURAL GAS PRICES AS A TOOL FOR REDUCING THREATS TO RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC SECURITY
Original languageRussian
Article number9
JournalСовременные технологии управления
Issue number4(100)
StatePublished - 23 Dec 2022

    Research areas

  • economic security, natural gas, pricing, PRICING MODELS, NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECASTING, BALANCE MODELS, STOCHASTIC MODELS

    Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

ID: 102560052