Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья › Рецензирование
The climate changes and recurrence of extreme hydrothermal events. / Pavlovsky, A. A.
в: Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta, Seriya Geologiya i Geografiya, Том 2006, № 3, 2006, стр. 88-94.Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья › Рецензирование
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The climate changes and recurrence of extreme hydrothermal events
AU - Pavlovsky, A. A.
PY - 2006
Y1 - 2006
N2 - Modern anthropogenic global warming, which has already begun to manifest itself in many of the geographical regions, is the main factor for the occurrence of droughts causing low crop yields in some countries. In the past few decades we observed uniformity in the occurrence of droughts and crop productivity in major wheat-producing regions of the world. In general, in the regions of the moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a global warming exceeding 1°C will be favorable for obtaining higher and stable agricultural production. This should promote the planting of more productive thermophilic crops in the northern areas and more hydrophilic cultivars in current arid zones. Considering the perspective of future research in this field, it is necessary to notice that the weakest and the most complex component of such research is the development of the reliable forecasts of regional climate changes. Although recent research work on predicting climate change has made great advances at the global scale, predictions of regional climate change are still unreliable. While there are considerable improvements in the reliability of predictions of regional climate change, we cannot expect to see much progress in forecasting agroclimatology and long-term drought prediction.
AB - Modern anthropogenic global warming, which has already begun to manifest itself in many of the geographical regions, is the main factor for the occurrence of droughts causing low crop yields in some countries. In the past few decades we observed uniformity in the occurrence of droughts and crop productivity in major wheat-producing regions of the world. In general, in the regions of the moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a global warming exceeding 1°C will be favorable for obtaining higher and stable agricultural production. This should promote the planting of more productive thermophilic crops in the northern areas and more hydrophilic cultivars in current arid zones. Considering the perspective of future research in this field, it is necessary to notice that the weakest and the most complex component of such research is the development of the reliable forecasts of regional climate changes. Although recent research work on predicting climate change has made great advances at the global scale, predictions of regional climate change are still unreliable. While there are considerable improvements in the reliability of predictions of regional climate change, we cannot expect to see much progress in forecasting agroclimatology and long-term drought prediction.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33846525543&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - статья
AN - SCOPUS:33846525543
VL - 2006
SP - 88
EP - 94
JO - ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ИСТОРИЯ
JF - ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ИСТОРИЯ
SN - 1812-9323
IS - 3
ER -
ID: 92642623