TY - JOUR

T1 - The climate changes and recurrence of extreme hydrothermal events

AU - Pavlovsky, A. A.

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - Modern anthropogenic global warming, which has already begun to manifest itself in many of the geographical regions, is the main factor for the occurrence of droughts causing low crop yields in some countries. In the past few decades we observed uniformity in the occurrence of droughts and crop productivity in major wheat-producing regions of the world. In general, in the regions of the moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a global warming exceeding 1°C will be favorable for obtaining higher and stable agricultural production. This should promote the planting of more productive thermophilic crops in the northern areas and more hydrophilic cultivars in current arid zones. Considering the perspective of future research in this field, it is necessary to notice that the weakest and the most complex component of such research is the development of the reliable forecasts of regional climate changes. Although recent research work on predicting climate change has made great advances at the global scale, predictions of regional climate change are still unreliable. While there are considerable improvements in the reliability of predictions of regional climate change, we cannot expect to see much progress in forecasting agroclimatology and long-term drought prediction.

AB - Modern anthropogenic global warming, which has already begun to manifest itself in many of the geographical regions, is the main factor for the occurrence of droughts causing low crop yields in some countries. In the past few decades we observed uniformity in the occurrence of droughts and crop productivity in major wheat-producing regions of the world. In general, in the regions of the moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a global warming exceeding 1°C will be favorable for obtaining higher and stable agricultural production. This should promote the planting of more productive thermophilic crops in the northern areas and more hydrophilic cultivars in current arid zones. Considering the perspective of future research in this field, it is necessary to notice that the weakest and the most complex component of such research is the development of the reliable forecasts of regional climate changes. Although recent research work on predicting climate change has made great advances at the global scale, predictions of regional climate change are still unreliable. While there are considerable improvements in the reliability of predictions of regional climate change, we cannot expect to see much progress in forecasting agroclimatology and long-term drought prediction.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33846525543&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - статья

AN - SCOPUS:33846525543

VL - 2006

SP - 88

EP - 94

JO - ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ИСТОРИЯ

JF - ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ИСТОРИЯ

SN - 1812-9323

IS - 3

ER -