TY - JOUR

T1 - Strategic Analysis of Nagorno-Karabakh Issue and Possible Scenarios of the Future of the Problem

AU - Alemdar, M.

AU - Atabay, Eup I.

PY - 2022/12/1

Y1 - 2022/12/1

N2 - Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most widely studied issue in Caucasian studies both before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war and after the war. Second Nagorno-Karabakh War has been constituted a possibility to change its frozen status. Although Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been tried to resolve by United Nations and some other international organizations, attempts remained inconclusive. Moreover, the concluded negotiations and presence of ceasefire between parties has never sustained an actual ceasefire. Low intensity clashes between parties lasted until secondNagorno-Karabakh War time by time. As a regional conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been witnessed third parties’ intervention. Russian Federation and Turkey have intervened as regional actor but also USA and France have intervened as international actor by Armenian interest groups’ role within USA and France socio-political realm. Since Nagorno-Karabakh is crucial for Energy roads and Caucasian security structure, the conflict is one of the focal points of the regional and international conflict. Beside Caucasia has been always important region for Post-Soviet Studies,Second Nagorno-Karabakh war is also important for Security Studies in the context of changing war structure with regards of armed drones’ role in the field. Yet the tension has decreased relatively between parties, peace possibility and future of issue should be analyzed and received considerablecritical attention. To that end, this article will give an account of conflict management analysis to understand features of issue and examine three scenarios as best, worst, and most likely by using Conflict Analysis Tools

AB - Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most widely studied issue in Caucasian studies both before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war and after the war. Second Nagorno-Karabakh War has been constituted a possibility to change its frozen status. Although Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been tried to resolve by United Nations and some other international organizations, attempts remained inconclusive. Moreover, the concluded negotiations and presence of ceasefire between parties has never sustained an actual ceasefire. Low intensity clashes between parties lasted until secondNagorno-Karabakh War time by time. As a regional conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been witnessed third parties’ intervention. Russian Federation and Turkey have intervened as regional actor but also USA and France have intervened as international actor by Armenian interest groups’ role within USA and France socio-political realm. Since Nagorno-Karabakh is crucial for Energy roads and Caucasian security structure, the conflict is one of the focal points of the regional and international conflict. Beside Caucasia has been always important region for Post-Soviet Studies,Second Nagorno-Karabakh war is also important for Security Studies in the context of changing war structure with regards of armed drones’ role in the field. Yet the tension has decreased relatively between parties, peace possibility and future of issue should be analyzed and received considerablecritical attention. To that end, this article will give an account of conflict management analysis to understand features of issue and examine three scenarios as best, worst, and most likely by using Conflict Analysis Tools

KW - Нагорный Карабах

KW - стратегический анализ

KW - управление конфликтами

KW - миростроительство

KW - дипломатия второго уровня

KW - NAGORNO-KARABAKH

KW - strategic analysis

KW - CONFLICT MANAGEMENT

KW - PEACEBUILDING

KW - TRACK II DIPLOMACY

M3 - Article

VL - 5

SP - 799

EP - 805

JO - Постсоветские исследования

JF - Постсоветские исследования

IS - 8

ER -