Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья › Рецензирование
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. / COVIDSurg Collaborative; GlobalSurg Collaborative.
в: British Journal of Surgery, Том 108, № 9, 09.2021, стр. 1056-1063.Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья › Рецензирование
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative
AU - GlobalSurg Collaborative
AU - Трофимов, Алексей Андреевич
AU - Zolotoukho, Anna
AU - Павлов, Ростислав Владимирович
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/9
Y1 - 2021/9
N2 - Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
AB - Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
KW - Adolescent
KW - Adult
KW - Aged
KW - COVID-19 Vaccines/pharmacology
KW - COVID-19/epidemiology
KW - Comorbidity
KW - Elective Surgical Procedures/methods
KW - Female
KW - Humans
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Postoperative Complications/prevention & control
KW - Preoperative Period
KW - Prospective Studies
KW - SARS-CoV-2/immunology
KW - Vaccination/methods
KW - Young Adult
KW - MULTICENTER
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85104561956&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/053b24af-44a7-35ee-85aa-4600ac451d7a/
U2 - 10.1093/bjs/znab101
DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab101
M3 - Article
C2 - 33761533
VL - 108
SP - 1056
EP - 1063
JO - British Journal of Surgery
JF - British Journal of Surgery
SN - 0007-1323
IS - 9
ER -
ID: 84464375