SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. / COVIDSurg Collaborative; GlobalSurg Collaborative.

In: British Journal of Surgery, Vol. 108, No. 9, 09.2021, p. 1056-1063.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Author

COVIDSurg Collaborative ; GlobalSurg Collaborative. / SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. In: British Journal of Surgery. 2021 ; Vol. 108, No. 9. pp. 1056-1063.

BibTeX

@article{655e6ef91c4f45c184bf4893c8701c98,

title = "SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study",

abstract = "Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.",

keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, Aged, COVID-19 Vaccines/pharmacology, COVID-19/epidemiology, Comorbidity, Elective Surgical Procedures/methods, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Postoperative Complications/prevention & control, Preoperative Period, Prospective Studies, SARS-CoV-2/immunology, Vaccination/methods, Young Adult, MULTICENTER",

author = "{COVIDSurg Collaborative} and {GlobalSurg Collaborative} and Трофимов, {Алексей Андреевич} and Anna Zolotoukho and Павлов, {Ростислав Владимирович}",

year = "2021",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1093/bjs/znab101",

language = "English",

volume = "108",

pages = "1056--1063",

journal = "British Journal of Surgery",

issn = "0007-1323",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative

AU - GlobalSurg Collaborative

AU - Трофимов, Алексей Андреевич

AU - Zolotoukho, Anna

AU - Павлов, Ростислав Владимирович

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

AB - Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Aged

KW - COVID-19 Vaccines/pharmacology

KW - COVID-19/epidemiology

KW - Comorbidity

KW - Elective Surgical Procedures/methods

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Postoperative Complications/prevention & control

KW - Preoperative Period

KW - Prospective Studies

KW - SARS-CoV-2/immunology

KW - Vaccination/methods

KW - Young Adult

KW - MULTICENTER

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85104561956&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/053b24af-44a7-35ee-85aa-4600ac451d7a/

U2 - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

M3 - Article

C2 - 33761533

VL - 108

SP - 1056

EP - 1063

JO - British Journal of Surgery

JF - British Journal of Surgery

SN - 0007-1323

IS - 9

ER -

ID: 84464375