Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья в журнале по материалам конференции › Рецензирование
Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics. / Tomchin, Dmitry A.; Fradkov, Alexander L.
в: IFAC-PapersOnLine, Том 53, № 5, 2020, стр. 833-838.Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья в журнале по материалам конференции › Рецензирование
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
AU - Tomchin, Dmitry A.
AU - Fradkov, Alexander L.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: ©2020 The Authors.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.
AB - An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107885017&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209
DO - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85107885017
VL - 53
SP - 833
EP - 838
JO - IFAC-PapersOnLine
JF - IFAC-PapersOnLine
SN - 2405-8971
IS - 5
T2 - 3rd IFAC Workshop on Cyber-Physical and Human Systems, CPHS 2020
Y2 - 3 December 2020 through 5 December 2020
ER -
ID: 87328657