Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics

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Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics. / Tomchin, Dmitry A.; Fradkov, Alexander L.

In: IFAC-PapersOnLine, Vol. 53, No. 5, 2020, p. 833-838.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

BibTeX

@article{abde7af98e074dc99992cfcecde39666,

title = "Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics",

abstract = "An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.",

author = "Tomchin, {Dmitry A.} and Fradkov, {Alexander L.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020 The Authors.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.; 3rd IFAC Workshop on Cyber-Physical and Human Systems, CPHS 2020 ; Conference date: 03-12-2020 Through 05-12-2020",

year = "2020",

doi = "10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209",

language = "English",

volume = "53",

pages = "833--838",

journal = "IFAC-PapersOnLine",

issn = "2405-8963",

publisher = "Elsevier",

number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics

AU - Tomchin, Dmitry A.

AU - Fradkov, Alexander L.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.

AB - An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107885017&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209

DO - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209

M3 - Conference article

AN - SCOPUS:85107885017

VL - 53

SP - 833

EP - 838

JO - IFAC-PapersOnLine

JF - IFAC-PapersOnLine

SN - 2405-8963

IS - 5

T2 - 3rd IFAC Workshop on Cyber-Physical and Human Systems, CPHS 2020

Y2 - 3 December 2020 through 5 December 2020

ER -

ID: 87328657