TY - JOUR

T1 - Two Epidemic Models of Malaria and Their Practical Applications

AU - Захаров, Виктор Васильевич

AU - Ндиайе, Серинь Моду

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Based on data on the annual incidence of malaria in Senegal in the period from 2000 to 2021, thearticle demonstrates the possibilities of predicting the annual dynamics of the epidemic using the SIR model and the CIR model. A modified SIR model with constant coefficients is constructed, and a description of the CIR balance model with stochastic parameters is given. The question of the accuracy of forecasting the annual statistical indicators of the epidemic when using these models is investigated. As numerical experiments show, the average error in predicting the annual number of sick people compared to actual statisticaldata when using the SIR model is quite large, while the CIR model generates more accurate forecasts when compared.

AB - Based on data on the annual incidence of malaria in Senegal in the period from 2000 to 2021, thearticle demonstrates the possibilities of predicting the annual dynamics of the epidemic using the SIR model and the CIR model. A modified SIR model with constant coefficients is constructed, and a description of the CIR balance model with stochastic parameters is given. The question of the accuracy of forecasting the annual statistical indicators of the epidemic when using these models is investigated. As numerical experiments show, the average error in predicting the annual number of sick people compared to actual statisticaldata when using the SIR model is quite large, while the CIR model generates more accurate forecasts when compared.

U2 - 10.1134/S1064562423600811

DO - 10.1134/S1064562423600811

M3 - Article

VL - 108

SP - 8

EP - 16

JO - Doklady Mathematics

JF - Doklady Mathematics

SN - 1064-5624

ER -