Against the combined backdrop of external sanctions and domestic structural adjustment, the density of loss-making enterprises reflects the spatial differentiation of real sector stress across regions and is therefore relevant for identifying regional risk exposure in Russia. Using annual data for Russia’s federal subjects from 2014 to 2023, drawn primarily from official statistical sources including Rosstat, this study takes the density of loss-making enterprises as the dependent variable and applies density analysis, hot spot analysis, the Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE), and the Geodetector model to examine its spatiotemporal distribution and associated factors. The results show that the cross-sectional median density of lossmaking enterprises across federal subjects generally declined over the study period, while the national aggregate pattern remained shaped to a considerable extent by a small number of leading regions. Spatially, high-density concentration remains more visible in leading western metropolitan and corridor regions, while the statistically significant Gi* hot spot is mainly concentrated in the northwestern gateway around Saint Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast. The overall distribution retains a pronounced east–west orientation with only limited centroid change. In terms of associated factors, retail trade turnover, the level of urbanization, and employment in finance and insurance exhibit relatively strong association-based explanatory power for the observed spatial differences. Based on these findings, the study suggests that policy attention should focus on persistent high-density areas identified by the spatial diagnosis by strengthening enterprise risk monitoring, improving bankruptcy and restructuring arrangements, and enhancing regional risk governance through better infrastructure and transport accessibility. The study provides diagnostic spatial evidence for understanding regional differences in corporate-sector stress in Russia and for identifying priority areas for place-based governance.
