Unstable multivariate monitoring processes often exhibit stochastic chaos, where strong nonlinearity and timevarying dependencies limit the effectiveness of classical regression. This paper proposes a regression-based forecasting framework that exploits slowly varying cross-correlations between a target variable and selected immersion-environment parameters. Correlated regressors are compressed into a scalar integrated indicator and used in a rolling, shifted-design model. Three integration strategies are considered and combined within a twolevel multi-expert architecture via weighted averaging. Experiments on data from an unstable gas-dynamic technological process show that multi-expert aggregation reduces systematic forecast delay and improves accuracy, yielding an average MSE reduction of approximately 11% relative to the best single expert.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2026 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing, ICIEAM 2026
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages407-412
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)979-8-3315-8056-8
ISBN (Print)979-8-3315-8057-5
DOIs
StatePublished - 18 May 2026
EventThe International Conference on Industrial Engineering 2026 - Sochi, Sochi, Russian Federation
Duration: 17 May 202623 Jun 2026
https://icie-rus.org/icie2026-eng.html

Conference

ConferenceThe International Conference on Industrial Engineering 2026
Abbreviated titleICIE 2026
Country/TerritoryRussian Federation
CitySochi
Period17/05/2623/06/26
Internet address

    Research areas

  • integrated regressors, machine learning, multi-expert systems, nonstationary stochastic processes, online time series forecasting, singular spectrum analysis

ID: 156363989