Covid-19 Aftermath in Russia. / Vukovic, Darko B. ; Kurbonov, Orifjon Olimjon Ugli.
The European Integration Process: Crisis and Resilience in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Coimbra University Press, 2022. p. 377-391.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › Research › peer-review
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TY - CHAP
T1 - Covid-19 Aftermath in Russia
AU - Vukovic, Darko B.
AU - Kurbonov, Orifjon Olimjon Ugli
N1 - Vukovic, D. B. Covid-19 Aftermath in Russia / D. B. Vukovic, O. O U. Kurbonov // The European Integration Process: Crisis and Resilience in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic. - Coimbra University Press, 2022. - P. 377-391.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - This chapter analyses and estimates the main macroeconomic indicators affected by the Covid-19 recession in Russia. The study applies the ARIMA model to estimate GDP growth, trade balance, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment rate, on Brent prices in Covid-19 aftermath. The indicators were chosen based on the highest impact of oil prices on them, on which the Russian economy is highly dependent. According to the results of the ARIMA model, the oil pri-ces will continue to impact GDP growth, trade balance and exchange rate, with an indication of recovery in the next 10 months. The biggest challenge for the Russian economy in the Covid-19 aftermath will concern ruble volatility and international constraints (sanctions and international political pressures), which significantly affect the macro and business environment.
AB - This chapter analyses and estimates the main macroeconomic indicators affected by the Covid-19 recession in Russia. The study applies the ARIMA model to estimate GDP growth, trade balance, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment rate, on Brent prices in Covid-19 aftermath. The indicators were chosen based on the highest impact of oil prices on them, on which the Russian economy is highly dependent. According to the results of the ARIMA model, the oil pri-ces will continue to impact GDP growth, trade balance and exchange rate, with an indication of recovery in the next 10 months. The biggest challenge for the Russian economy in the Covid-19 aftermath will concern ruble volatility and international constraints (sanctions and international political pressures), which significantly affect the macro and business environment.
KW - covid-19
KW - aftermath
KW - macroeconomic indicators
KW - oil price
KW - Russia
U2 - https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2364-1
DO - https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2364-1
M3 - Chapter
SN - 978-989-26-2363-4
SP - 377
EP - 391
BT - The European Integration Process: Crisis and Resilience in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic
PB - Coimbra University Press
ER -
ID: 101792348