This chapter analyses and estimates the main macroeconomic indicators affected by the Covid-19 recession in Russia. The study applies the ARIMA model to estimate GDP growth, trade balance, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment rate, on Brent prices in Covid-19 aftermath. The indicators were chosen based on the highest impact of oil prices on them, on which the Russian economy is highly dependent. According to the results of the ARIMA model, the oil pri-ces will continue to impact GDP growth, trade balance and exchange rate, with an indication of recovery in the next 10 months. The biggest challenge for the Russian economy in the Covid-19 aftermath will concern ruble volatility and international constraints (sanctions and international political pressures), which significantly affect the macro and business environment.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe European Integration Process: Crisis and Resilience in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic
PublisherCoimbra University Press
Chapter21
Pages377-391
ISBN (Print)978-989-26-2363-4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes

    Research areas

  • covid-19, aftermath, macroeconomic indicators, oil price, Russia

ID: 101792348