The article discusses the conflict situation around the construction of a plant for bottling water from lake Baikal. On the one hand, on the initiative of Akvasib LLC, the creation of a modern enterprise is an alternative to the industrial development of the Baikal coast - an alternative to industrial development of the Baikal shore, on the other hand, if the construction and operation conditions are not met, this is a threat of environmental and social problems. The purpose of the study is a conflict analysis of the situation and justification of the court decision to ban the construction of the plant. The content model of the situation includes structural and dynamic indicators: the object, subject, subjects, their interests, and the chronology of the conflict, which, together with expert assessments, are the source information for analytical tools based on the expert method Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) of Thomas L. Saaty and its software implementation of Super Decisions. The mathematical model implemented in this method allows us to take into account significant factors in the social, political, economic, and environmental spheres, which is very important for the situation under consideration. The analyzed solutions in life always have advantages and disadvantages, and they were taken into account when filling out the matrix of paired comparisons separately by hierarchies of social factors, political-economic and environmental with the same alternatives (“build” or “do not build”). The analysis of the situation shows that the advantage on the side of the alternative “do not build”. This is due to the fact that the sensitivity of the result in relation to another alternative to “build” depends on the initial and boundary conditions of the current situation in the region, and they are determined by the identified weaknesses and vulnerabilities in management during planning and construction, including the imperfection of environmental legislation. However, changing external conditions may change the ratio in favor of another alternative, which will require additional research. The analytical tools provided in the article can be effectively used by experts and decision-makers.