The article explores the main security risks of maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf region against the background of Iran’s confrontation with the United States and Israel in the summer of 2025. Considering the interests of several international actors including Western countries, China and Iran itself, the scenario of the outbreak of a “tanker war” in the Strait of Hormuz as one of the main choke points of world trade is analyzed. First, the article summarizes the various forms of the US military presence in the region and shows relatively low dependence on raw materials supplies from the Persian Gulf. The same thing is for European countries trying to get involved in the regional dynamics while keeping diplomatic pressure on Tehran. Second, the latest trends in Iranian-Chinese economic relations are examined and Beijing’s desire to act as a peaceful, “regulating” actor is highlighted. Third, the study notes Iran’s fluctuations between national prestige and concerns of experiencing severe consequences from a new round of confrontation. The article concludes that at the present stage, none of the parties is ready for a large-scale escalation, although not only Tehran, but also Washington is able to at least partially block the strait. The United States and Iran, as a rule, are deterred from active actions by economic considerations and the vulnerability of their own forces to reply strikes; in turn, China prefers a political settlement of conflicts in the Middle East. Yet, the risks of a small-scale “tanker war” remain relevant, as a result of which alternative routes through Eurasia receive additional impetus.
Translated title of the contribution“Hormuz Dilemma”: Resilience of International Sea Logistics in the Persian Gulf
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)120-128
Number of pages9
JournalМИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ
Volume70
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2026

ID: 152096216