The article considers one of the most significant theories of the economic cycle in terms of its relevance to statistical data. At the same time, indicators that formalize basic concepts of this theory are introduced for the first time. These include the level of credit expansion and the transformation of the production structure. Methods of econometric verification are used to test the logical mechanism of influence of monetary factors (coming from the institutional features of the banking system) on real production - in the framework of the Austrian theory. The analysis is supplemented by a comparison of how financial results of financial and real sector companies depend on the phases of the economic cycle.