The main purpose of the paper is to estimate the capabilities of NEMO
3.6 regional reanalysis data for a realistic description of the Baltic
Sea steric level oscillations, the spatio-temporal structure research
and causes of modern sea level changes, induced by fluctuations in water
density, in the range of interannual and seasonal variability scales.
Comparison of the steric level oscillations series calculated from
contact measurements of temperature and salinity at oceanographic
stations and from regional reanalysis data is carried out by evaluating
various statistical accuracy criteria. The paper shows that the
reanalysis data allow reproducing the Baltic Sea steric level
oscillations quite accurately. Estimates of linear trends indicate that
in the period 1993–2020 in the open Baltic and in the west of the Gulf
of Finland, the steric sea level is mainly decreasing, while in the Gulf
of Bothnia the steric level is increasing. Harmonic analysis of steric
level oscillations showed that the annual harmonic 𝑆a in the range of
seasonal variability makes a predominant contribution to steric level
oscillations, its amplitude significantly exceeds the amplitudes of the
harmonics 𝑆sa, 𝑆ta and 𝑆qa. The thermosteric component has the main
influence on seasonal steric level oscillations, and only in the
south-west of the sea there is a significant influence of the halosteric
component. During the period under review, positive linear trends were
observed in the amplitudes changes of the harmonics 𝑆a, 𝑆sa, 𝑆ta and
𝑆qa in most regions of the Baltic Sea, however, in the south-west of
the open Baltic, a decrease in the amplitudes of all four harmonics of
seasonal steric level oscillations was observed in the south-west part
of the Open Baltic Sea. In conclusion, based on the obtained results, it
is assumed that the identified modern regional changes in the Baltic
Sea steric level oscillations are associated with an increase in air
temperature, an increase in precipitation, a decrease in wind intensity,
a desalination of the upper quasi-homogeneous layer and an increase in
deep and near-bottom waters salinity caused by water exchange with salty
waters of the North Sea.