TY - JOUR

T1 - ON GUARANTEED FORECAST ESTIMATION

AU - Prasolov, A. V.

AU - Zamuraev, K. A.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - The paper formulates the problem of time series forecast definition with a given probability (guarantee). Two approaches to the task solution are offered. The first method is based on forecasting by a time-variant regression and a relevant histogram. The second method consists of preliminary calculation of a new time series of some statistics and creation of their forecast. The methods offered are used to determine the guaranteed characteristics of Brent oil price in 2013 year and to make a long-term forecast for 2014–2016 years. Bibliogr. 12. Il. 10.

AB - The paper formulates the problem of time series forecast definition with a given probability (guarantee). Two approaches to the task solution are offered. The first method is based on forecasting by a time-variant regression and a relevant histogram. The second method consists of preliminary calculation of a new time series of some statistics and creation of their forecast. The methods offered are used to determine the guaranteed characteristics of Brent oil price in 2013 year and to make a long-term forecast for 2014–2016 years. Bibliogr. 12. Il. 10.

KW - time series

KW - regression

KW - forecast with guarantee

KW - estimation by histogram

KW - Brent oil price.

M3 - Article

SP - 82

EP - 96

JO - ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ПРИКЛАДНАЯ МАТЕМАТИКА. ИНФОРМАТИКА. ПРОЦЕССЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ

JF - ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ПРИКЛАДНАЯ МАТЕМАТИКА. ИНФОРМАТИКА. ПРОЦЕССЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ

SN - 1811-9905

IS - 4

ER -