TY - JOUR

T1 - Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery

AU - Revell, Laura E.

AU - Bannister, Michele T.

AU - Brown, Tyler F. M.

AU - Sukhodolov, Timofei

AU - Vattioni, Sandro

AU - Dykema, John

AU - Frame, David J.

AU - Cater, John

AU - Chiodo, Gabriel

AU - Rozanov, Eugene

PY - 2025/6/9

Y1 - 2025/6/9

N2 - Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our 'ambitious' scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a -0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%. Our 'conservative' scenario (884 launches/year) yields -0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030. Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion. Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable.

AB - Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our 'ambitious' scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a -0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%. Our 'conservative' scenario (884 launches/year) yields -0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030. Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion. Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable.

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/371959d2-ad67-3f79-a3ca-b03254dbfdb9/

U2 - 10.1038/s41612-025-01098-6

DO - 10.1038/s41612-025-01098-6

M3 - Article

C2 - 40502538

VL - 8

JO - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

JF - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

SN - 2397-3722

IS - 1

M1 - 212

ER -