TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-Term Evolution of the Ozone Layer Under CMIP7 Scenarios

AU - Ткаченко, Маргарита Александровна

AU - Розанов, Евгений Владимирович

N1 - Export Date: 09 February 2026; Cited By: 0; Correspondence Address: E.V. Rozanov; Ozone Layer and Upper Atmosphere Research Laboratory, Faculty of Physics, Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint-Peterburg, 199034, Russian Federation; email: eugene.rozanov@pmodwrc.ch

PY - 2026/1/16

Y1 - 2026/1/16

N2 - Recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer following the ban on ozone-depleting substances represents one of the most successful examples of international environmental policy. However, the long-term fate of ozone under continuing climate change remains uncertain. We present the first multi-century projections of ozone evolution to 2200 using emission-driven CMIP7 scenarios in the SOCOL-MPIOM chemistry-climate model. Our results show that despite the elimination of halogenated compounds, total column ozone exhibits non-monotonic evolution, with an initial increase of 8–12% by 2080–2100, followed by a decline to 2200, remaining 4.5–7% above the 2020 baseline. Stratospheric ozone at 50 hPa shows a monotonic decline of 2–11% by 2200 across all scenarios, with no recovery despite ongoing Montreal Protocol implementation. Critically, even in the high-overshoot scenario where CO2 concentrations decline from 830 to 350 ppm between 2100 and 2200, stratospheric ozone continues to decrease. Intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in warmer climates reduces ozone residence time in the tropical stratosphere, decreasing photochemical production efficiency. This dynamic effect outweighs the reduction in ozone-depleting substances, leading to persistent stratospheric ozone depletion despite total column ozone enhancements in polar regions. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced regional differentiation: Antarctic regions show sustained total column enhancement of +18–26% by 2190–2200, while tropical regions decline to levels below baseline (−4 to −5%). Our results reveal fundamental asymmetry between climate forcing and ozone response, with characteristic adjustment timescales of 100–200 years, and have critical implications for long-term atmospheric protection policy.

AB - Recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer following the ban on ozone-depleting substances represents one of the most successful examples of international environmental policy. However, the long-term fate of ozone under continuing climate change remains uncertain. We present the first multi-century projections of ozone evolution to 2200 using emission-driven CMIP7 scenarios in the SOCOL-MPIOM chemistry-climate model. Our results show that despite the elimination of halogenated compounds, total column ozone exhibits non-monotonic evolution, with an initial increase of 8–12% by 2080–2100, followed by a decline to 2200, remaining 4.5–7% above the 2020 baseline. Stratospheric ozone at 50 hPa shows a monotonic decline of 2–11% by 2200 across all scenarios, with no recovery despite ongoing Montreal Protocol implementation. Critically, even in the high-overshoot scenario where CO2 concentrations decline from 830 to 350 ppm between 2100 and 2200, stratospheric ozone continues to decrease. Intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in warmer climates reduces ozone residence time in the tropical stratosphere, decreasing photochemical production efficiency. This dynamic effect outweighs the reduction in ozone-depleting substances, leading to persistent stratospheric ozone depletion despite total column ozone enhancements in polar regions. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced regional differentiation: Antarctic regions show sustained total column enhancement of +18–26% by 2190–2200, while tropical regions decline to levels below baseline (−4 to −5%). Our results reveal fundamental asymmetry between climate forcing and ozone response, with characteristic adjustment timescales of 100–200 years, and have critical implications for long-term atmospheric protection policy.

KW - chemistry-climate model

KW - climate change

KW - CMIP7 scenarios

KW - irreversibility

KW - ozone recovery

KW - stratospheric cooling

KW - stratospheric ozone

KW - Atmospheric chemistry

KW - Climate change

KW - Climate models

KW - Environmental protection

KW - Halogenation

KW - Long Term Evolution (LTE)

KW - Ozone

KW - Recovery

KW - Tropical engineering

KW - Tropics

KW - Upper atmosphere

KW - Chemistry-climate models

KW - CMIP7 scenario

KW - Irreversibility

KW - Long-term evolution

KW - Monotonics

KW - Ozone depleting substances

KW - Ozone recovery

KW - Stratospheric cooling

KW - Stratospheric ozone

KW - Total column ozone

KW - Ozone layer

KW - atmospheric chemistry

KW - climate forcing

KW - climate modeling

KW - cooling

KW - ozone depletion

KW - photochemistry

KW - stratosphere-troposphere interaction

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/d3e3bccf-b2fa-346d-b1a5-0974c2b25416/

U2 - 10.3390/atmos17010092

DO - 10.3390/atmos17010092

M3 - Article

VL - 17

JO - ATMOSPHERE

JF - ATMOSPHERE

SN - 1598-3560

IS - 1

M1 - 92

ER -