TY - CHAP

T1 - Impact of Public Attitudes towards Vaccination on Influenza Epidemic Dynamics

AU - Кумачева, Сурия Шакировна

AU - Житкова, Екатерина Михайловна

AU - Томилина, Галина

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Infectious diseases, spreading with great intensity among the population, have always been one of the basic biological threats to humans. Fighting them is one of WHO’s priorities. A well-known and well-studied measure to control the spread of infection is vaccination of the population in the case of many diseases. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and recent studies devoted to the impact of vaccination on the development of the pandemic have shown an ambiguous attitude to this tool, the stratification of society and the heterogeneity of its views on this issue. The goal of this study is to verify the hypothesis that the dynamics of opinions about vaccine prophylaxis influence the development of the epidemic process. This hypothesis is investigated using the example of an influenza epidemic. It is assumed that, the opinion dynamics process is completed before the seasonal influenza outbreak begins, by which time each agent has made a vaccination decision. Such decisions influence the formation of immune status personally for each agent, as well as the formation of collective immunity in the population as a whole. The development of the epidemic process is described by one of the modifications of the classical Kermack-McKendrick model (1927). The theoretical study is accompanied by simulation of opinion dynamics and epidemic process, implemented on a network model based on a random graph. A numerical experiment based on statistical data on influenza incidence and annual vaccination campaigns in the Russia and scenario analysis are performed.

AB - Infectious diseases, spreading with great intensity among the population, have always been one of the basic biological threats to humans. Fighting them is one of WHO’s priorities. A well-known and well-studied measure to control the spread of infection is vaccination of the population in the case of many diseases. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and recent studies devoted to the impact of vaccination on the development of the pandemic have shown an ambiguous attitude to this tool, the stratification of society and the heterogeneity of its views on this issue. The goal of this study is to verify the hypothesis that the dynamics of opinions about vaccine prophylaxis influence the development of the epidemic process. This hypothesis is investigated using the example of an influenza epidemic. It is assumed that, the opinion dynamics process is completed before the seasonal influenza outbreak begins, by which time each agent has made a vaccination decision. Such decisions influence the formation of immune status personally for each agent, as well as the formation of collective immunity in the population as a whole. The development of the epidemic process is described by one of the modifications of the classical Kermack-McKendrick model (1927). The theoretical study is accompanied by simulation of opinion dynamics and epidemic process, implemented on a network model based on a random graph. A numerical experiment based on statistical data on influenza incidence and annual vaccination campaigns in the Russia and scenario analysis are performed.

KW - Anti-vaccine propaganda

KW - Influenza Epidemic

KW - Network model

KW - Opinion dynamics

KW - SEIRD model

KW - Vaccination

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/739494fa-cf1c-3bab-ae45-a4be98927426/

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-72260-8_2

DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-72260-8_2

M3 - Conference abstracts

SN - 978-3-031-72259-2

T3 - Communications in Computer and Information Science

SP - 17

EP - 31

BT - Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies (MSBC 2024)

PB - Springer Nature

CY - Cham

T2 - Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies. MSBC 2024.

Y2 - 17 September 2024 through 19 September 2024

ER -