DOI

  • J. G. Anet
  • E. V. Rozanov
  • S. Muthers
  • T. Peter
  • S. Broennimann
  • F. Arfeuille
  • J. Beer
  • C. C. Raible
  • F. Steinhilber
  • W. K. Schmutz

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Язык оригиналаАнглийский
Страницы (с-по)4420-4425
Число страниц6
ЖурналGeophysical Research Letters
Том40
Номер выпуска16
DOI
СостояниеОпубликовано - 28 авг 2013

ID: 105537893