Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья › Рецензирование
Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating. / Чжоу, Цзянцзин; Петросян, Ованес Леонович; Gao, Hongwei.
в: Scientific Reports, Том 14, № 1, 12594 , 01.12.2024.Результаты исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданиях › статья › Рецензирование
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating
AU - Чжоу, Цзянцзин
AU - Петросян, Ованес Леонович
AU - Gao, Hongwei
PY - 2024/12/1
Y1 - 2024/12/1
N2 - This study presents a dynamic Bayesian game model designed to improve predictions of ecological uncertainties leading to natural disasters. It incorporates historical signal data on ecological indicators. Participants, acting as decision-makers, receive signals about an unknown parameter-observations of a random variable’s realization values before a specific time, offering insights into ecological uncertainties. The essence of the model lies in its dynamic Bayesian updating, where beliefs about unknown parameters are refined with each new signal, enhancing predictive accuracy. The main focus of our paper is to theoretically validate this approach, by presenting a number of theorems that prove its precision and efficiency in improving uncertainty estimations. Simulation results validate the model’s effectiveness in various scenarios, highlighting its role in refining natural disaster forecasts.
AB - This study presents a dynamic Bayesian game model designed to improve predictions of ecological uncertainties leading to natural disasters. It incorporates historical signal data on ecological indicators. Participants, acting as decision-makers, receive signals about an unknown parameter-observations of a random variable’s realization values before a specific time, offering insights into ecological uncertainties. The essence of the model lies in its dynamic Bayesian updating, where beliefs about unknown parameters are refined with each new signal, enhancing predictive accuracy. The main focus of our paper is to theoretically validate this approach, by presenting a number of theorems that prove its precision and efficiency in improving uncertainty estimations. Simulation results validate the model’s effectiveness in various scenarios, highlighting its role in refining natural disaster forecasts.
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/2bfcfc1f-69dc-354c-a0b3-33938fdfcd88/
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-024-63234-1
DO - 10.1038/s41598-024-63234-1
M3 - Article
VL - 14
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
SN - 2045-2322
IS - 1
M1 - 12594
ER -
ID: 126141210