Anti-Russian sanctions have had varied and multidirectional impacts across multiple sectors of the national economy, including the housing construction sector - most notably, the development of multiapartment residential buildings. As a consequence of these sanctions, foreign developers employing advanced management and marketing practices withdrew from the Russian market, while domestic developers were forced to rapidly adapt to both new and intensifying preexisting factors shaping the primary housing market. This study seeks to identify the adaptation trajectories of major residential developers operating within the St. Petersburg agglomeration under the constraints imposed by anti-Russian economic sanctions. To this end, several research objectives were pursued: compiling and analyzing data on residential projects from the Unified Housing Construction Information System (UHCIS); mapping the territorial distribution of completed and ongoing residential developments; examining changes in the intensity of land development across different territorial zones; and evaluating developers’ spatial strategies using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and other analytical tools. The empirical foundation of the study is drawn primarily from UHCIS data provided by DOM.RF (including the map of new construction), complemented by information from media sources. Through cartographic analysis, territorial clusters of residential construction were delineated, and the share of housing commissioned in each cluster was assessed for three time periods: 2016-2020, 2020-2024, and 2025-2028. Developer concentration within these clusters was further evaluated using the HHI. The study identifies five major crisis factors induced by sanctions and outlines nine distinct adaptation trajectories among various groups of developers. The most immediate response was the withdrawal of foreign developers from the market. The research further proposes four strategic models adopted by domestic developers, each characterized by specific strengths, limitations, and implications for urban development. Among the most influential factors was the sharp increase in the Central Bank’s key interest rate, which led to a significant decline in suburban development due to reduced mortgage affordability. Conversely, development activity intensified in parts of the socalled ‘grey belt’, targeting segments of higherincome demand. This reorientation has contributed to greater spatial integration within the agglomeration and the ongoing expansion of the urban core.
The study was carried out with the financial support of the St. Petersburg State University № 116814048 / GZ_F_2025 “Development of adaptive strategies for the behaviour of economic agents in the context of anti-Russian economic sanctions”.
