TY - JOUR

T1 - A Multi-Expert Evolutionary Boosting Method for Proactive Control in Unstable Environments

AU - Мусаев, Александр Азерович

AU - Григорьев, Дмитрий Алексеевич

PY - 2025/11/2

Y1 - 2025/11/2

N2 - Unstable technological processes, such as turbulent gas and hydrodynamic flows, generate time series that deviate sharply from the assumptions of classical statistical forecasting. These signals are shaped by stochastic chaos, characterized by weak inertia, abrupt trend reversals, and pronounced low-frequency contamination. Traditional extrapolators, including linear and polynomial models, therefore act only as weak forecasters, introducing systematic phase lag and rapidly losing directional reliability. To address these challenges, this study introduces an evolutionary boosting framework within a multi-expert system (MES) architecture. Each expert is defined by a compact genome encoding training-window length and polynomial order, and experts evolve across generations through variation, mutation, and selection. Unlike conventional boosting, which adapts only weights, evolutionary boosting adapts both the weights and the structure of the expert pool, allowing the system to escape local optima and remain responsive to rapid environmental shifts. Numerical experiments on real monitoring data demonstrate consistent error reduction, highlighting the advantage of short windows and moderate polynomial orders in balancing responsiveness with robustness. The results show that evolutionary boosting transforms weak extrapolators into a strong short-horizon forecaster, offering a lightweight and interpretable tool for proactive control in environments dominated by chaotic dynamics.

AB - Unstable technological processes, such as turbulent gas and hydrodynamic flows, generate time series that deviate sharply from the assumptions of classical statistical forecasting. These signals are shaped by stochastic chaos, characterized by weak inertia, abrupt trend reversals, and pronounced low-frequency contamination. Traditional extrapolators, including linear and polynomial models, therefore act only as weak forecasters, introducing systematic phase lag and rapidly losing directional reliability. To address these challenges, this study introduces an evolutionary boosting framework within a multi-expert system (MES) architecture. Each expert is defined by a compact genome encoding training-window length and polynomial order, and experts evolve across generations through variation, mutation, and selection. Unlike conventional boosting, which adapts only weights, evolutionary boosting adapts both the weights and the structure of the expert pool, allowing the system to escape local optima and remain responsive to rapid environmental shifts. Numerical experiments on real monitoring data demonstrate consistent error reduction, highlighting the advantage of short windows and moderate polynomial orders in balancing responsiveness with robustness. The results show that evolutionary boosting transforms weak extrapolators into a strong short-horizon forecaster, offering a lightweight and interpretable tool for proactive control in environments dominated by chaotic dynamics.

KW - chaotic time series forecasting

KW - ensemble learning

KW - evolutionary boosting

KW - multi-expert systems

KW - polynomial extrapolation

KW - proactive control

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/79981a82-66d3-36d8-9fde-0cca7648913b/

U2 - 10.3390/a18110692

DO - 10.3390/a18110692

M3 - Article

VL - 18

JO - Algorithms

JF - Algorithms

SN - 1999-4893

IS - 11

M1 - 692

ER -