TY - JOUR

T1 - Восприятие социальной приемлемости климатических рисков в горных районах трех сибирских регионов России (результаты статистического моделирования)

AU - Максимова, Светлана Геннадьевна

AU - Ганюшкин, Дмитрий Анатольевич

AU - Омельченко, Дарья Михайловна

AU - Максимова, Виктория Максимовна

PY - 2026/3/31

Y1 - 2026/3/31

N2 - Introduction. Climate change poses a significant threat to mountain communities worldwide, impacting food security, water resources, and increasing the frequency of natural disasters. This study analyzes the perception of the social acceptability of climate change risks among populations in the mountainous regions of the Altai Mountains system, specifically in Altai Krai, the Altai Republic, and the Republic of Tuva. The social acceptability of risk is understood as the level of protection and security that ensures sustainable development, social well-being, and the ability to meet basic needs. Research methods and materials. The research is based on sociological expedition data collected in 2022–2024. A total of 2,258 respondents aged 18 and above from various highland and lowland landscapes were surveyed using face-to-face interviews. The data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to test hypotheses about the factors influencing risk perception and its relationship to social acceptability and adaptive behavior. The model included latent variables for social acceptability (measured by perceived security, life satisfaction, and adaptability) and traditional lifestyle. Research results. The findings confirm that gender and age are significant determinants of risk perception, with women and older individuals demonstrating greater sensitivity to climate-related threats. Adherence to a traditional lifestyle was also a significant positive predictor of risk perception. A key finding is the strong negative correlation between risk perception and social acceptability: a higher perceived risk correlates with lower levels of life satisfaction, adaptability, and a sense of security. While the general model was confirmed across all regions, regional variations were identified. For instance, in the Altai Krai, higher education and income levels were associated with lower risk perception but higher acceptability, whereas in the Altai Republic, the opposite was true for education. The model for Tuva showed greater homogeneity due to its socio-cultural context. Conclusion. The study concludes that the perception of climate risks in the Altai Mountain region follows global patterns, being influenced by socio-demographic and cultural factors. The established negative link between risk perception and social acceptability highlights the vulnerability of certain groups. The research underscores the latent nature of the climate problem in these communities and emphasizes the critical need to incorporate local specifics and actively involve mountain communities in the development of climate policies to enhance the resilience of these vulnerable territories.

AB - Introduction. Climate change poses a significant threat to mountain communities worldwide, impacting food security, water resources, and increasing the frequency of natural disasters. This study analyzes the perception of the social acceptability of climate change risks among populations in the mountainous regions of the Altai Mountains system, specifically in Altai Krai, the Altai Republic, and the Republic of Tuva. The social acceptability of risk is understood as the level of protection and security that ensures sustainable development, social well-being, and the ability to meet basic needs. Research methods and materials. The research is based on sociological expedition data collected in 2022–2024. A total of 2,258 respondents aged 18 and above from various highland and lowland landscapes were surveyed using face-to-face interviews. The data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to test hypotheses about the factors influencing risk perception and its relationship to social acceptability and adaptive behavior. The model included latent variables for social acceptability (measured by perceived security, life satisfaction, and adaptability) and traditional lifestyle. Research results. The findings confirm that gender and age are significant determinants of risk perception, with women and older individuals demonstrating greater sensitivity to climate-related threats. Adherence to a traditional lifestyle was also a significant positive predictor of risk perception. A key finding is the strong negative correlation between risk perception and social acceptability: a higher perceived risk correlates with lower levels of life satisfaction, adaptability, and a sense of security. While the general model was confirmed across all regions, regional variations were identified. For instance, in the Altai Krai, higher education and income levels were associated with lower risk perception but higher acceptability, whereas in the Altai Republic, the opposite was true for education. The model for Tuva showed greater homogeneity due to its socio-cultural context. Conclusion. The study concludes that the perception of climate risks in the Altai Mountain region follows global patterns, being influenced by socio-demographic and cultural factors. The established negative link between risk perception and social acceptability highlights the vulnerability of certain groups. The research underscores the latent nature of the climate problem in these communities and emphasizes the critical need to incorporate local specifics and actively involve mountain communities in the development of climate policies to enhance the resilience of these vulnerable territories.

KW - Altai mountains

KW - Siberian regions

KW - climate change

KW - climate change adaptation

KW - climate policy

KW - social acceptability of risk

KW - subjective risk perception

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/960c5754-f049-38ea-9c44-04d32189c869/

U2 - 10.21177/1998-4502-2026-18-1-549-565

DO - 10.21177/1998-4502-2026-18-1-549-565

M3 - статья

VL - 18

SP - 549

EP - 565

JO - Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories

JF - Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories

SN - 1998-4502

IS - 1

ER -