Ссылки

DOI

The article presents an interdisciplinary analysis of risks associated with climate change and glacier degradation, within the framework of an integrative approach, but relying on the in- dividual level of perception and characteristics of the local community as critical elements that determine the adaptive potential of the population, its sustainability and vulnerability, which have not only a certain spatial and geographical, but also socio-cultural, ethno-eco- nomic specificity. In the Kosh-Agach district of the Altai Republic, warming was revealed, most pronounced in the spring months, the results of calculations of the gyro-thermal co- efficients allow us to talk about desertification of the basin part of the district. At the same time, the frequency of intense, potentially dangerous rainfalls has increased. Since the middle of the 19th century, a 60% reduction in the area of glaciers in the district caused by climate change has been established. The obtained results are correlated with the socio-economic in- dicators of regional development based on sociological research, including population surveys (n = 664), in-depth semi-structured interviews (n = 27) and interviews with experts (n = 47). The conducted study advocates an interdisciplinary view of the nature, assessment and man- agement capabilities of climate risks, combining a natural-scientific, technical approach re- flecting objective changes in the cryosphere, characteristics of the displacement of high-alti- tude landscape belts, changes in the area and altitude of glaciers, glacial and total runoff under given scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes, with a social approach, which pays significant attention to the analysis of subjective opinions, social acceptability of risk and pop- ulation safety in conjunction with traditional management and nature management, cultural aspects of the perception of climate change. The results of the sociological surveys focus not only on assessments of awareness of specific risks associated with glaciers, but also on the broader context in which climate-induced modifications of spatial elements of living space act as catalysts for social change.
Переведенное названиеPerception of risks associated with climate change and glacier shrinkage by residents of the Kosh-Agach district of the Altai Republic
Язык оригиналарусский
Страницы (с-по)81-108
Число страниц28
ЖурналВестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Науки о Земле
Том71
Номер выпуска1
Дата раннего онлайн-доступа16 фев 2026
DOI
СостояниеОпубликовано - мар 2026

ID: 149348553