Infection with tropical parasitic diseases, according to WHO, has a huge impact on the health of more than 40 million people worldwide and is the second leading cause of immunodeficiency. The number of infections is influenced by many factors - climatic, demographic, vegetation cover and a number of others. The article presents a study and an assessment of the degree of influence of each of these factors, as well as a comparison of the quality of forecasting by separate methods of geo-informational analysis and machine learning and the possibility of their ensemble.