TY - JOUR

T1 - Лагранжево моделирование как ключевой инструмент МЧС России в океане

AU - Будянский, Максим Васильевич

AU - Лебедева, Мария Алексеевна

AU - Файман, Павел Аркадьевич

AU - Белоненко, Татьяна Васильевна

AU - Улейский, М.Ю.

N1 - Будянский М.В., Лебедева М.А., Файман П.А., Белоненко Т.В., Улейский М.Ю. Лагранжево моделирование как ключевой инструмент МЧС России в океане // Природные и техногенные риски (физико-математические и прикладные аспекты). 2026. №2 (58), С. 6-28. DOI: 10.61260/2304-0130-2026-2-6-28 ПЕРЕВОД: Lagrange modeling as a key tool of the Russian Emercom in the ocean / Budyansky M.V. [et al.] // Natural and man-made risks (physico-mathematical and applied aspects). 2026. № 2 (58). P. 6–28. DOI: 10.61260/2307-7476-2026-2-6-28

PY - 2026/8/29

Y1 - 2026/8/29

N2 - The paper shows that traditional Eulerian approaches, which describe only velocity and concentration fields, but not the actual trajectories of hazardous substances and objects, are fundamentally insufficient for solving the problems of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations in the marine environment. Based on Lagrangian modeling, the paper demonstrates the possibilities of operational forecasting of the transport of oil and anthropogenic pollutants, radioactive emissions from accidents at coastal nuclear power plants, as well as the drift of bodies and shipwrecks in the context of complex multiscale ocean circulation. Examples that are directly related to the activities of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (the accident in Chazhma Bay, a hypothetical oil spill in the Kozmino port, pollution in the South-Eastern Baltic, anthropogenic pressure in the Taganrog Bay, and the consequences of accidents at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa and Fukushima-1 nuclear power plants) are considered, for which Lagrangian analysis allows us to identify transport corridors, areas of pollution accumulation, and temporary “windows” of risk. It is shown that the integration of Lagrangian modeling.

AB - The paper shows that traditional Eulerian approaches, which describe only velocity and concentration fields, but not the actual trajectories of hazardous substances and objects, are fundamentally insufficient for solving the problems of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations in the marine environment. Based on Lagrangian modeling, the paper demonstrates the possibilities of operational forecasting of the transport of oil and anthropogenic pollutants, radioactive emissions from accidents at coastal nuclear power plants, as well as the drift of bodies and shipwrecks in the context of complex multiscale ocean circulation. Examples that are directly related to the activities of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (the accident in Chazhma Bay, a hypothetical oil spill in the Kozmino port, pollution in the South-Eastern Baltic, anthropogenic pressure in the Taganrog Bay, and the consequences of accidents at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa and Fukushima-1 nuclear power plants) are considered, for which Lagrangian analysis allows us to identify transport corridors, areas of pollution accumulation, and temporary “windows” of risk. It is shown that the integration of Lagrangian modeling.

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/566ebe53-22b9-3615-a52f-1d194f0f21c1/

U2 - 10.61260/2304-0130-2026-2-6-28

DO - 10.61260/2304-0130-2026-2-6-28

M3 - статья

SP - 6

EP - 28

JO - Природные и техногенные риски (физико-математические и прикладные аспекты)

JF - Природные и техногенные риски (физико-математические и прикладные аспекты)

SN - 2307-7476

IS - 2(58)

ER -