DOI

This study is dedicated to the investigation of the relationship between the wave activity in February and temperature variations in the Arctic lower stratosphere in March. To study this relationship, the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the minimum temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March (Tmin) and the amplitude of the planetary wave with zonal number 1 (PW1) in February were calculated. Tmin determines the conditions for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) following the chemical destruction of the ozone layer. The NCEP and ERA5 reanalysis data and the modern and future climate simulations of the Earth system models INM CM5 and SOCOLv4 were employed. It is shown that the maximum significant CC value between Tmin at 70 hPa in the polar region in March and the amplitude of the PW1 in February in the reanalysis data in the lower stratosphere is 0.67 at the pressure level of 200 hPa. The CCs calculated using the model data are characterized by maximum values of ~0.5, also near the same pressure level. Thus, it is demonstrated that the change in the planetary wave activity in the lower extratropical stratosphere in February can be one of the predictors of the Tmin. For further analysis of the dynamic structure in the lower stratosphere, composites of 10 seasons with the lowest and highest Tmin of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March were assembled. For these composites, differences in the vertical distribution and total ozone content, surface temperature, and residual meridional circulation (RMC) were considered, and features of the spatial distribution of wave activity fluxes were investigated. The obtained results may be useful for the development of forecasting of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation, especially for the late winter season, when substantial ozone depletion occurs in some years.
Translated title of the contributionИзменения планетарной волновой активности в нижней стратосфере в феврале как предиктор истощения озонового слоя в Арктике в марте
Original languageEnglish
Article number1237
JournalATMOSPHERE
Volume15
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - 16 Oct 2024

    Research areas

  • Arctic stratosphere, ozone layer, planetary waves, residual meridional circulation, sudden stratospheric warming

ID: 126067915