DOI

This study investigates the time-varying efficiency of major cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and XRP—within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). We introduce a forward-looking method by integrating predicted data into the Dominguez–Lobato (DL) and generalised spectral (GS) testing frameworks as part of Martingale Difference Theory (MDT). Our strategy allows us to forecast potential future inefficiencies in the market, advancing the traditional retrospective analyses (based on historical perspective) prevalent in the literature. We employ and test forecasted data to identify potential future shifts in market efficiency, as an extension of the Martingale difference hypothesis (MDH). The results indicate that cryptocurrency markets do not maintain a static level of efficiency but adapt over time, with varying degrees of predictability and inefficiency. The random forest (RF) model demonstrates the ability to forecast breaks in market efficiency.
Translated title of the contributionДинамическая эффективность и предсказуемость на рынке криптовалют: анализ предиктивной динамики
Original languageEnglish
Article number70039
Number of pages20
JournalInternational Journal of Finance and Economics
DOIs
StateE-pub ahead of print - 11 Aug 2025

    Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

    Research areas

  • adaptive market hypothesis, cryptocurrencies, martingale difference hypothesis, random forest, random walk

ID: 139657810