TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of the Polar Silk Road on the Sustainable Development of Eurasian Trade. Evidence from Russian -Chinese Economic Relations

AU - Ефимова, Елена Глебовна

AU - Шэнь, Чжисин

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - This study examines how the Polar Silk Road, with particular emphasis on the Northern Sea Route, influences the sustainable evolution of Eurasian trade, focusing on interactions between Russia and China. It reviews both the structure and scale of commercial exchanges between China and the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, namely Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan, while identifying the principal challenges affecting these trade dynamics. To clarify the logistical advantages and limitations of various transport pathways, a comparative assessment is undertaken between the Northern Sea Route, the Suez Canal corridor, and the Trans-Siberian Railway, with attention to their respective implications for freight transportation. In light of the strategic priorities shared by Moscow and Beijing, and the potential role of the Northern Sea Route and the Trans-Siberian Railway in facilitating transit shipments, a least squares econometric framework is constructed to evaluate whether the utilisation of the Northern Sea Route acts as a significant catalyst for expanding trade between the two states. The empirical results indicate that cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route exerts a considerable positive effect on bilateral trade flows. Additionally, the study provides projections for the Russia-China trade turnover expected by 2025. Drawing on these outcomes and the associated determinants, several policy suggestions are formulated to reinforce the long-term, sustainable advancement of trade cooperation between the two countries.

AB - This study examines how the Polar Silk Road, with particular emphasis on the Northern Sea Route, influences the sustainable evolution of Eurasian trade, focusing on interactions between Russia and China. It reviews both the structure and scale of commercial exchanges between China and the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, namely Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan, while identifying the principal challenges affecting these trade dynamics. To clarify the logistical advantages and limitations of various transport pathways, a comparative assessment is undertaken between the Northern Sea Route, the Suez Canal corridor, and the Trans-Siberian Railway, with attention to their respective implications for freight transportation. In light of the strategic priorities shared by Moscow and Beijing, and the potential role of the Northern Sea Route and the Trans-Siberian Railway in facilitating transit shipments, a least squares econometric framework is constructed to evaluate whether the utilisation of the Northern Sea Route acts as a significant catalyst for expanding trade between the two states. The empirical results indicate that cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route exerts a considerable positive effect on bilateral trade flows. Additionally, the study provides projections for the Russia-China trade turnover expected by 2025. Drawing on these outcomes and the associated determinants, several policy suggestions are formulated to reinforce the long-term, sustainable advancement of trade cooperation between the two countries.

KW - Polar Silk Road, Northern Sea Route, Arctic, Eurasian Economic Union, Russian-Chinese Trade Relations, Econometric Model

KW - Arctic

KW - Econometric Model

KW - Eurasian Economic Union

KW - Northern Sea Route

KW - Polar Silk Road

KW - Russian-Chinese Trade Relations

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/718b8d3d-1a1c-33c8-95ee-35264ba3c357/

U2 - 10.34109/ijefs.202517305

DO - 10.34109/ijefs.202517305

M3 - Article

VL - 17

SP - 88

EP - 110

JO - International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies

JF - International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies

SN - 1309-8055

IS - 3

ER -