TY - JOUR

T1 - Study of irregular dynamics in an economic model

T2 - attractor localization and Lyapunov exponents

AU - Alexeeva, Tatyana A.

AU - Kuznetsov, Nikolay V.

AU - Mokaev, Timur N.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s)

PY - 2021/11/1

Y1 - 2021/11/1

N2 - Cyclicality and instability inherent in the economy can manifest themselves in irregular fluctuations, including chaotic ones, which significantly reduces the accuracy of forecasting the dynamics of the economic system in the long run. We focus on an approach, associated with the identification of a deterministic endogenous mechanism of irregular fluctuations in the economy. Using of a mid-size firm model as an example, we demonstrate the use of effective analytical and numerical procedures for calculating the quantitative characteristics of its irregular limiting dynamics based on Lyapunov exponents, such as dimension and entropy. We use an analytical approach for localization of a global attractor and study limiting dynamics of the model. We estimate the Lyapunov exponents and get the exact formula for the Lyapunov dimension of the global attractor of this model analytically. With the help of delayed feedback control (DFC), the possibility of transition from irregular limiting dynamics to regular periodic dynamics is shown to solve the problem of reliable forecasting. At the same time, we demonstrate the complexity and ambiguity of applying numerical procedures to calculate the Lyapunov dimension along different trajectories of the global attractor, including unstable periodic orbits (UPOs).

AB - Cyclicality and instability inherent in the economy can manifest themselves in irregular fluctuations, including chaotic ones, which significantly reduces the accuracy of forecasting the dynamics of the economic system in the long run. We focus on an approach, associated with the identification of a deterministic endogenous mechanism of irregular fluctuations in the economy. Using of a mid-size firm model as an example, we demonstrate the use of effective analytical and numerical procedures for calculating the quantitative characteristics of its irregular limiting dynamics based on Lyapunov exponents, such as dimension and entropy. We use an analytical approach for localization of a global attractor and study limiting dynamics of the model. We estimate the Lyapunov exponents and get the exact formula for the Lyapunov dimension of the global attractor of this model analytically. With the help of delayed feedback control (DFC), the possibility of transition from irregular limiting dynamics to regular periodic dynamics is shown to solve the problem of reliable forecasting. At the same time, we demonstrate the complexity and ambiguity of applying numerical procedures to calculate the Lyapunov dimension along different trajectories of the global attractor, including unstable periodic orbits (UPOs).

KW - Absorbing set

KW - Chaos

KW - Lyapunov dimension

KW - Lyapunov exponents

KW - Mid-size firm model

KW - Unstable periodic orbit

KW - HAUSDORFF DIMENSION

KW - STABILITY

KW - POLICY FUNCTIONS

KW - CHAOS CONTROL

KW - LORENZ

KW - HIDDEN ATTRACTORS

KW - FLUCTUATIONS

KW - INDETERMINACY

KW - TOPOLOGICAL-ENTROPY

KW - BIFURCATION

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85115201542&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/da377c12-70d3-3206-81ab-beb0520971dd/

U2 - 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111365

DO - 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111365

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85115201542

VL - 152

JO - Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

JF - Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

SN - 0960-0779

M1 - 111365

ER -