TY - CONF

T1 - SOCIAL ECOLOGY AS A CONNECTING LINK BETWEEN FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRACTICE

T2 - 18TH PCSF 2018 - PROFESSIONAL СULTURE OF THE SPECIALIST OF THE FUTURE

AU - Сергеев, Юрий Николаевич

AU - Дмитриев, Василий Васильевич

AU - Кулеш, Валерий Петрович

N1 - Conference code: XVIII

PY - 2018/12/15

Y1 - 2018/12/15

N2 - The paper gives a definition of the socio-ecological system (SES). The global and regional models of SES are discussed in connection with practical macroeconomics. A number of model scenarios for development of SES in USSR up to the year 2070 are considered. The "Mir-2" model implemented in MathCad ("Mir-2 MC") was used in the paper to verify Eu. Odum's hypothesis on cyclical development of the civilization and a possibility to shift it to the stationary functioning mode. It is shown that the initial condition for the resource equation adopted in "Mir-2" model is understated by a factor of 3-9. The scenarios implemented in "Mir-2 MC" model showed that SES gives rise to macro-scale oscillations of all components with the increase of the traditional fossil fuel reserves. The number of cycles changes from 2 to 4. In case of the use of oil shale reserves, with profitable extraction, the number of oscillations increases to 15. When using thermonuclear energy, SES components shift to the simple harmonic motion mode close to the equilibrium state. The growth of the population size in every cycle, except for the last one, is limited not by fuel resources, but by food shortage and environmental pollution. Cyclic processes end in spontaneous transition to stationary development. An adjustable transition to SES' steady motion is possible only through population control after the completion of the first or subsequent cycles. A logistic model of growth with an acceptable population threshold of 1.5 billion is used as a regulator.

AB - The paper gives a definition of the socio-ecological system (SES). The global and regional models of SES are discussed in connection with practical macroeconomics. A number of model scenarios for development of SES in USSR up to the year 2070 are considered. The "Mir-2" model implemented in MathCad ("Mir-2 MC") was used in the paper to verify Eu. Odum's hypothesis on cyclical development of the civilization and a possibility to shift it to the stationary functioning mode. It is shown that the initial condition for the resource equation adopted in "Mir-2" model is understated by a factor of 3-9. The scenarios implemented in "Mir-2 MC" model showed that SES gives rise to macro-scale oscillations of all components with the increase of the traditional fossil fuel reserves. The number of cycles changes from 2 to 4. In case of the use of oil shale reserves, with profitable extraction, the number of oscillations increases to 15. When using thermonuclear energy, SES components shift to the simple harmonic motion mode close to the equilibrium state. The growth of the population size in every cycle, except for the last one, is limited not by fuel resources, but by food shortage and environmental pollution. Cyclic processes end in spontaneous transition to stationary development. An adjustable transition to SES' steady motion is possible only through population control after the completion of the first or subsequent cycles. A logistic model of growth with an acceptable population threshold of 1.5 billion is used as a regulator.

KW - Civilization, cyclic development, mathematical model, population, socio-ecological system, stationary mode.

UR - https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=39248314

U2 - 10.15405/epsbs.2018.12.02.28

DO - 10.15405/epsbs.2018.12.02.28

M3 - Abstract

SP - 255

EP - 265

Y2 - 28 November 2018 through 30 November 2018

ER -