TY - JOUR

T1 - Parameterizing a hydrological model using a short-term observational dataset to study runoff generation processes and reproduce recent trends in streamflow at a remote mountainous permafrost basin

AU - Nesterova, Nataliia

AU - Makarieva, Olga

AU - Post, David Andrew

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2021/7/1

Y1 - 2021/7/1

N2 - Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River basin in the mountainous, permafrost, hard-to-reach region of Eastern Siberia. This study aims to investigate and simulate runoff formation processes, including the factors driving recent changes in hydrological response of the Suntar River, based on short-term historical observations of a range of hydrological, climatological and landscape measurements conducted in 1957–1959. The hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957–1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957–2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km2, altitude 828–2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash–Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67, respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in the global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.

AB - Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River basin in the mountainous, permafrost, hard-to-reach region of Eastern Siberia. This study aims to investigate and simulate runoff formation processes, including the factors driving recent changes in hydrological response of the Suntar River, based on short-term historical observations of a range of hydrological, climatological and landscape measurements conducted in 1957–1959. The hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957–1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957–2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km2, altitude 828–2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash–Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67, respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in the global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.

KW - climate change

KW - goltsy

KW - hydrograph model

KW - hydrological model parametrization

KW - remote high-altitude permafrost basin

KW - short-term observations

KW - the Suntar River

KW - HEADWATER BASIN

KW - WATER-BALANCE STATION

KW - SENSITIVITY

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - RIVER

KW - SIMULATION

KW - EVAPORATION

KW - IMPACT

KW - PRECIPITATION

KW - KOLYMA

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85111348210&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/33f11537-afc8-374d-ab80-7bdeb753008f/

U2 - 10.1002/hyp.14278

DO - 10.1002/hyp.14278

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85111348210

VL - 35

JO - Hydrological Processes

JF - Hydrological Processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 7

M1 - 14278

ER -