TY - JOUR

T1 - Parameterizing a hydrological model using a short-term observational data set to study runoff generation processes and reproduce recent trends in streamflow at a remote mountainous permafrost basin

AU - Nesterova, N.

AU - Makarieva, O.

AU - Post, David

PY - 2020/10

Y1 - 2020/10

N2 - Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River in Eastern Siberia. This study attempts to attribute these changed hydrological conditions through parameterizing a hydrological model based on historical short-term observations conducted in 1957-1959 at the Suntar-Khayata research station. The Hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957-1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957-2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km2, altitude 828-2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash-Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67 respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations rather than blind calibration allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.

AB - Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River in Eastern Siberia. This study attempts to attribute these changed hydrological conditions through parameterizing a hydrological model based on historical short-term observations conducted in 1957-1959 at the Suntar-Khayata research station. The Hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957-1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957-2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km2, altitude 828-2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash-Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67 respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations rather than blind calibration allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.

KW - remote high-altitude permafrost basin

KW - Hydrograph modeling

KW - short-term observation

KW - hydrological model parametrization

KW - goltsy

KW - climate change

KW - Suntar River

UR - https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/49593/preprint_pdf/d61d7f4ff4ac7f1d9dcea61a72098d43.pdf

UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hyp.14278

M3 - Article

VL - 35

JO - Hydrological Processes

JF - Hydrological Processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 7

M1 - e14278

ER -