The problem of inflation prediction has been in focus of monetary policies of both advanced and emerging economies for several decades. Specifically, this problem is very relevant to the modern monetary policy of the Russian Federation, even after a tremendous success of the Bank of Russia in struggling inflation after the national currency (ruble) crisis in 2014. As of recently, the forecasts of inflation made by the Russian monetary authorities have been showing quite significant discrepancy with the actual figures. This study is aimed at demonstration how the modern approaches of time-series econometrics can be used to significantly improve the quality of inflation prediction. Relevant policy recommendations are discussed.
Translated title of the contributionПредсказание инфляции на основе эффекта "длинной памяти": на примере России
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)55-64
JournalOpen Journal for Research in Economics
Volume2
Issue number2
StatePublished - Oct 2019

    Research areas

  • inflation prediction, long-memory effects, autoregressive models

ID: 47783602