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Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone. / Anet, J. G.; Rozanov, E. V.; Muthers, S.; Peter, T.; Broennimann, S.; Arfeuille, F.; Beer, J.; Raible, C. C.; Steinhilber, F.; Schmutz, W. K.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, No. 16, 28.08.2013, p. 4420-4425.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Harvard

Anet, JG, Rozanov, EV, Muthers, S, Peter, T, Broennimann, S, Arfeuille, F, Beer, J, Raible, CC, Steinhilber, F & Schmutz, WK 2013, 'Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, no. 16, pp. 4420-4425. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806

APA

Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Broennimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., & Schmutz, W. K. (2013). Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(16), 4420-4425. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806

Vancouver

Anet JG, Rozanov EV, Muthers S, Peter T, Broennimann S, Arfeuille F et al. Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone. Geophysical Research Letters. 2013 Aug 28;40(16):4420-4425. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806

Author

Anet, J. G. ; Rozanov, E. V. ; Muthers, S. ; Peter, T. ; Broennimann, S. ; Arfeuille, F. ; Beer, J. ; Raible, C. C. ; Steinhilber, F. ; Schmutz, W. K. / Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2013 ; Vol. 40, No. 16. pp. 4420-4425.

BibTeX

@article{571580c1e1474dc7a5e5fbfeea32f0ad,
title = "Impact of a potential 21st century {"}grand solar minimum{"} on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone",
abstract = "We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.",
keywords = "grand solar minimum, global warming, 21st century, total ozone column, erythemal, MODEL",
author = "Anet, {J. G.} and Rozanov, {E. V.} and S. Muthers and T. Peter and S. Broennimann and F. Arfeuille and J. Beer and Raible, {C. C.} and F. Steinhilber and Schmutz, {W. K.}",
year = "2013",
month = aug,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1002/grl.50806",
language = "Английский",
volume = "40",
pages = "4420--4425",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "16",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

AU - Anet, J. G.

AU - Rozanov, E. V.

AU - Muthers, S.

AU - Peter, T.

AU - Broennimann, S.

AU - Arfeuille, F.

AU - Beer, J.

AU - Raible, C. C.

AU - Steinhilber, F.

AU - Schmutz, W. K.

PY - 2013/8/28

Y1 - 2013/8/28

N2 - We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

AB - We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

KW - grand solar minimum

KW - global warming

KW - 21st century

KW - total ozone column

KW - erythemal

KW - MODEL

U2 - 10.1002/grl.50806

DO - 10.1002/grl.50806

M3 - статья

VL - 40

SP - 4420

EP - 4425

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 16

ER -

ID: 105537893