Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Global impacts of an extreme solar particle event under different geomagnetic field strengths. / Arsenović, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Usoskin, Ilya; Turney, Chris; Sukhodolov, Timofei; McCracken, Ken; Friedel, Marina; Anet, Julien; Simić, Stana; Maliniemi, Ville; Egorova, Tatiana; Korte, Monika; Rieder, Harald; Cooper, Alan; Peter, Thomas.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 121, No. 28, e2321770121, 09.07.2024.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Global impacts of an extreme solar particle event under different geomagnetic field strengths
AU - Arsenović, Pavle
AU - Rozanov, Eugene
AU - Usoskin, Ilya
AU - Turney, Chris
AU - Sukhodolov, Timofei
AU - McCracken, Ken
AU - Friedel, Marina
AU - Anet, Julien
AU - Simić, Stana
AU - Maliniemi, Ville
AU - Egorova, Tatiana
AU - Korte, Monika
AU - Rieder, Harald
AU - Cooper, Alan
AU - Peter, Thomas
PY - 2024/7/9
Y1 - 2024/7/9
N2 - Solar particle events (SPEs) are short-lived bursts of high-energy particles from the solar atmosphere and are widely recognized as posing significant economic risks to modern society. Most SPEs are relatively weak and have minor impacts on the Earth's environment, but historic records contain much stronger SPEs which have the potential to alter atmospheric chemistry, impacting climate and biological life. The impacts of such strong SPEs would be far more severe when the Earth's protective geomagnetic field is weak, such as during past geomagnetic excursions or reversals. Here, we model the impacts of an extreme SPE under different geomagnetic field strengths, focusing on changes in atmospheric chemistry and surface radiation using the atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM and the radiation transfer model LibRadtran. Under current geomagnetic conditions, an extreme SPE would increase NO x concentrations in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere, causing reductions in extratropical stratospheric ozone lasting for about a year. In contrast, with no geomagnetic field, there would be a substantial increase in NO x throughout the entire atmosphere, resulting in severe stratospheric ozone depletion for several years. The resulting ground-level ultraviolet (UV) radiation would remain elevated for up to 6 y, leading to increases in UV index up to 20 to 25% and solar-induced DNA damage rates by 40 to 50%. The potential evolutionary impacts of past extreme SPEs remain an important question, while the risks they pose to human health in modern conditions continue to be underestimated.
AB - Solar particle events (SPEs) are short-lived bursts of high-energy particles from the solar atmosphere and are widely recognized as posing significant economic risks to modern society. Most SPEs are relatively weak and have minor impacts on the Earth's environment, but historic records contain much stronger SPEs which have the potential to alter atmospheric chemistry, impacting climate and biological life. The impacts of such strong SPEs would be far more severe when the Earth's protective geomagnetic field is weak, such as during past geomagnetic excursions or reversals. Here, we model the impacts of an extreme SPE under different geomagnetic field strengths, focusing on changes in atmospheric chemistry and surface radiation using the atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM and the radiation transfer model LibRadtran. Under current geomagnetic conditions, an extreme SPE would increase NO x concentrations in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere, causing reductions in extratropical stratospheric ozone lasting for about a year. In contrast, with no geomagnetic field, there would be a substantial increase in NO x throughout the entire atmosphere, resulting in severe stratospheric ozone depletion for several years. The resulting ground-level ultraviolet (UV) radiation would remain elevated for up to 6 y, leading to increases in UV index up to 20 to 25% and solar-induced DNA damage rates by 40 to 50%. The potential evolutionary impacts of past extreme SPEs remain an important question, while the risks they pose to human health in modern conditions continue to be underestimated.
KW - geomagnetic excursion
KW - geomagnetic field
KW - ozone
KW - radiation dose
KW - solar particle event
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/ed6620f3-dfd7-3337-be8e-81bfa3785ed9/
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2321770121
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2321770121
M3 - Article
C2 - 38950370
VL - 121
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
SN - 0027-8424
IS - 28
M1 - e2321770121
ER -
ID: 122467674