The main objective of the presented research is to develop a model in order to predict fracture of asphalt road surface impacted by an automobile tire stud. Two analytical approximations of the process are studied. The first one is spall fracture of asphalt. The model is not very close to the real process studied, but the solution is simple and is providing a possibility to analyze effect of asphalt properties on critical impact speeds leading to asphalt fracture. The second analytical model is based on the known Hertz-type solution for a cylinder impacting half-space. This model is much closer to the real stud impact process and is providing a possibility to estimate the effect of asphalt elasticity modulus on critical stud velocity, leading to fracture of the asphalt surface. Fracture criterion for all the studied models is based on the incubation time theory for brittle fracture. As a result of the analysis it is demonstrated that the critical automobile speed, leading to creation of fracture in asphalt does depend on asphalt elastic modulus. This dependency is received both qualitatively and quantitatively. It is shown that larger elastic moduli are resulting in smaller critical car velocities giving damage to asphalt. At the same time larger elastic moduli are providing better performance of asphalt layer undergoing quasistatic loading (slow heavy traffic). Practical solution to maximize durability of highways is to use different asphalt mixtures in right (slower) and left (faster) traffic lanes. This can be, for example, achieved by addition of plasticizers into asphalt mixture used to cover high-speed traffic lanes.