The course of COVID-19 is highly variable, with genetics playing a significant role. Through large-scale genetic association studies, a link between single nucleotide polymorphisms and disease susceptibility and severity was established. However, individual single nucleotide polymorphisms identified thus far have shown modest effects, indicating a polygenic nature of this trait, and individually have limited predictive performance. To address this limitation, we investigated the performance of a polygenic risk score model in the context of COVID-19 severity in a Russian population. A genome-wide polygenic risk score model including information from over a million common single nucleotide polymorphisms was developed using summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative consortium. Low-coverage sequencing (5x) was performed for ~1000 participants, and polygenic risk score values were calculated for each individual. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyse the association between polygenic risk score and COVID-19 outcomes. We found that individuals in the top 10% of the polygenic risk score distribution had a markedly elevated risk of severe COVID-19, with adjusted odds ratio of 2.9 (95% confidence interval: 1.8-4.6, p-value = 4e-06), and more than four times higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio = 4.3, p-value = 2e-05). This study highlights the potential of polygenic risk score as a valuable tool for identifying individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 based on their genetic profile. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume153
DOIs
StatePublished - 2024

    Research areas

  • COVID-19, genetic predisposition, genome-wide association studies, low-pass whole genome sequencing, polygenic risk score, acute respiratory distress syndrome, adult, Article, case control study, chronic obstructive lung disease, computer assisted tomography, controlled study, coronavirus disease 2019, diagnostic test accuracy study, diastolic blood pressure, disease predisposition, disease severity, female, gene mutation, genetic association, genetic association study, genetic profile, genetic risk score, genome-wide association study, genotype, genotype phenotype correlation, genotyping, heart failure, hemodynamics, high throughput sequencing, human, major clinical study, male, middle aged, mortality, mortality risk, peripheral arterial disease, pleura effusion, population, quality control, receiver operating characteristic, risk factor, Russian (people), septic shock, sequence analysis, aged, epidemiology, genetics, multifactorial inheritance, Russian Federation, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, severity of illness index, single nucleotide polymorphism, virology, Adult, Aged, Case-Control Studies, Female, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genetic Risk Score, Genome-Wide Association Study, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Multifactorial Inheritance, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Risk Factors, Russia, SARS-CoV-2, Severity of Illness Index

ID: 143359340