TY - JOUR

T1 - Asymmetry of Cyclic Processes as the Foundation for Studies of Cycle Transformation

AU - Еникеева, Лилия

AU - Румянцева, Светлана Юрьевна

AU - Чибрик, Максим

N1 - L.A. Enikeeva, Svetlana Rumyantseva and M. Chibrik, 2018. Asymmetry of Cyclic Processes as the Foundation for Studies of Cycle Transformation. International Business Management, 12: 380-387.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Abstract. This paper considers basic approaches to modeling of economic cycles. Distinctions between common imbalances during economic development and economic crisis are examined. An approach to modeling of asymmetric cycles was proposed. This approach allows to determine cycle break points more accurately, and approximate the model closer to dynamics of real data. Influence of scientific and technical progress on behavior of economic cycles, their amplitude and duration was determined. If we provide analytical description for real investment flow and then distinguish aggregate effect of innovations on economy, we will be able to trace both the trend and corresponding cycle fluctuations. On the basis of US GDP statistical data for 1900-2014, approximated by modeling of the asymmetric cycle, there were defined characteristics of Kondratieff, Kuznets and Juglar cycles. These characteristics show themselves during cycle transformation in the form of cycle amplitude and duration changes. It is shown that transformation of economic cycles changes innovation content of mechanisms related to essential economic cycles.

AB - Abstract. This paper considers basic approaches to modeling of economic cycles. Distinctions between common imbalances during economic development and economic crisis are examined. An approach to modeling of asymmetric cycles was proposed. This approach allows to determine cycle break points more accurately, and approximate the model closer to dynamics of real data. Influence of scientific and technical progress on behavior of economic cycles, their amplitude and duration was determined. If we provide analytical description for real investment flow and then distinguish aggregate effect of innovations on economy, we will be able to trace both the trend and corresponding cycle fluctuations. On the basis of US GDP statistical data for 1900-2014, approximated by modeling of the asymmetric cycle, there were defined characteristics of Kondratieff, Kuznets and Juglar cycles. These characteristics show themselves during cycle transformation in the form of cycle amplitude and duration changes. It is shown that transformation of economic cycles changes innovation content of mechanisms related to essential economic cycles.

M3 - Article

VL - 12

SP - 380

EP - 387

JO - International Business Management

JF - International Business Management

SN - 1993-5250

IS - 5

M1 - 1

ER -