The case-based rate reasoning (CBRR) method is presented for predicting future values of the coronavirus epidemic's main parameters in Russia, which makes it possible to build short-term forecasts based on analogues of the percentage growth dynamics in other countries. A new heuristic method for estimating the duration of the transition process of the percentage increase between specified levels is described, taking into account information about the dynamics of epidemiological processes in countries of the spreading chain. The CBRR software module has been developed in the MATLAB environment, which implements the proposed approach and intelligent proprietary algorithms for constructing trajectories of predicted epidemic indicators.

Translated title of the contributionPredicting the dynamics of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic based on the case-based reasoning approach
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)249-259
Number of pages11
Journal ВЕСТНИК САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. ПРИКЛАДНАЯ МАТЕМАТИКА. ИНФОРМАТИКА. ПРОЦЕССЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ
Volume16
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 2020

    Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Control and Optimization
  • Applied Mathematics

ID: 72139913