TY - JOUR

T1 - Оценка применимости глобальных моделей климата CMIP6 для прогноза изменений климата и повторяемости опасных природных явлений на территории Магаданской области

AU - Макарьева, Ольга Михайловна

AU - Землянскова, Анастасия Александровна

AU - Шихов, Андрей Николаевич

AU - Никитина, Полина Андреевна

AU - Нестерова, Наталия Вадимовна

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - Abstract: The study analyzes the results of historical experiments with five global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) over the period 1981–2010 for the territory of the Magadan oblast. The performance of the models in simulating air temperature, precipitation, and annual runoff is considered by comparing GCM output data with ground-based observations and ERA5 reanalysis. It is found that all the models underestimate the annual range of air temperature variability, overestimating air temperature in winter and underestimating it in summer, especially in continental areas. Most of the models overestimate precipitation by up to 30%, more in a cold season, and annual runoff. In general, the CNRM-CM6-1-HR model has the best performance in simulating air temperature and precipitation. According to the GCM data for 2041–2060 under the SSP 4.5 “moderate” warming scenario, the average annual air temperature will rise by 1.5–3.8°C (with more significant warming in winter), and the precipitation will increase by 30% (with more significant increases in the mountainous part of the region). Such changes could contribute to a 10–30% increase in annual river runoff.

AB - Abstract: The study analyzes the results of historical experiments with five global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) over the period 1981–2010 for the territory of the Magadan oblast. The performance of the models in simulating air temperature, precipitation, and annual runoff is considered by comparing GCM output data with ground-based observations and ERA5 reanalysis. It is found that all the models underestimate the annual range of air temperature variability, overestimating air temperature in winter and underestimating it in summer, especially in continental areas. Most of the models overestimate precipitation by up to 30%, more in a cold season, and annual runoff. In general, the CNRM-CM6-1-HR model has the best performance in simulating air temperature and precipitation. According to the GCM data for 2041–2060 under the SSP 4.5 “moderate” warming scenario, the average annual air temperature will rise by 1.5–3.8°C (with more significant warming in winter), and the precipitation will increase by 30% (with more significant increases in the mountainous part of the region). Such changes could contribute to a 10–30% increase in annual river runoff.

KW - CMIP6

KW - Magadan oblast

KW - air temperature

KW - climate change

KW - global climate models

KW - natural hazards

KW - precipitation

KW - river runoff

UR - https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=89125757

M3 - статья

VL - 51

SP - 18

EP - 32

JO - Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya

JF - Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya

SN - 0130-2906

IS - 1

ER -