TY - JOUR

T1 - ХРОНОЛОГИЯ КОРОТКОПЕРИОДНЫХ ВАРИАЦИЙ КЛИМАТА В ГОЛОЦЕНЕ НА СЕВЕРО-ЗАПАДЕ РОССИИ И КОРРЕЛЯЦИЯ С ВАРИАЦИЯМИ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ

AU - Arslanov, Kh A.

AU - Dergachev, V. A.

AU - Maksimov, F. E.

AU - Kudryavtsev, J. V.

N1 - Funding Information: Keywords: bog sediments, radiocarbon dating, age correction by modeling, paleoclimatic reconstruction, cosmogenic isotopes, correlation of climate change and solar activity Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project no. 18-05-00381). Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Kazan Federal University. All rights reserved.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - In 1996-1999, with our participation, a number of sections of the bog sediments in Northwestern Russia were studied to develop a chronology of the stages in the vegetation and climate evolution during the Holocene. However, the resulting chronology failed to take into account the error in determining the radiocarbon age arising due to the changes in the concentration of atmospheric radiocarbon. To allow for this error and make the chronology more precise and reliable, here we used C. Bronk Ramsey's model based on comparing the radiocarbon chronology of the surveyed section with the calibration curve chronology. Thanks to this model, we were able to calculate the calibrated (modeled) age span of the entire series of radiocarbon dates that had been previously obtained by us for samples taken from the thickest (6.4-6.7 m) sediment layers of the raised bogs Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe, Shirinsky Mokh, and Sambal'skoe in Northwestern Russia. The deviations of the average annual temperature from its present value (∆T, °C), which had been represented in our earlier works as a graph, were converted into digital values and employed to define the modeled age that is most approximate to the calendar one and the corresponding values of ∆T for all the dated samples. The ∆T values were reconstructed for a period of 200-11000 cal yr. The modeled age of the cooling and warming stages was compared with the age of the stages of low and high solar activity established by counting the number of sunspots and by determining the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes (14C in tree rings of known age and 10Be in polar glaciers). It was revealed that, within the error in the measured values of age and ∆T, the short-term changes in the average annual temperature occurred simultaneously at three sites of the bog sediments under consideration. The identified changes in the average annual temperature turned out to be synchronous with similar temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 1000 years, as well as with the chronologies developed from the GISP 2 polar ice cores and the mountain glacier advances. In general, the comparison of the modeled age of the cooling stages with the corresponding grand minima of solar activity demonstrates the synchronicity of the periods of cooling and low solar activity during the Holocene. It was concluded that short-term climate change depends mainly on variations in solar activity, which is important for predicting and modeling climate shifts.

AB - In 1996-1999, with our participation, a number of sections of the bog sediments in Northwestern Russia were studied to develop a chronology of the stages in the vegetation and climate evolution during the Holocene. However, the resulting chronology failed to take into account the error in determining the radiocarbon age arising due to the changes in the concentration of atmospheric radiocarbon. To allow for this error and make the chronology more precise and reliable, here we used C. Bronk Ramsey's model based on comparing the radiocarbon chronology of the surveyed section with the calibration curve chronology. Thanks to this model, we were able to calculate the calibrated (modeled) age span of the entire series of radiocarbon dates that had been previously obtained by us for samples taken from the thickest (6.4-6.7 m) sediment layers of the raised bogs Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe, Shirinsky Mokh, and Sambal'skoe in Northwestern Russia. The deviations of the average annual temperature from its present value (∆T, °C), which had been represented in our earlier works as a graph, were converted into digital values and employed to define the modeled age that is most approximate to the calendar one and the corresponding values of ∆T for all the dated samples. The ∆T values were reconstructed for a period of 200-11000 cal yr. The modeled age of the cooling and warming stages was compared with the age of the stages of low and high solar activity established by counting the number of sunspots and by determining the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes (14C in tree rings of known age and 10Be in polar glaciers). It was revealed that, within the error in the measured values of age and ∆T, the short-term changes in the average annual temperature occurred simultaneously at three sites of the bog sediments under consideration. The identified changes in the average annual temperature turned out to be synchronous with similar temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 1000 years, as well as with the chronologies developed from the GISP 2 polar ice cores and the mountain glacier advances. In general, the comparison of the modeled age of the cooling stages with the corresponding grand minima of solar activity demonstrates the synchronicity of the periods of cooling and low solar activity during the Holocene. It was concluded that short-term climate change depends mainly on variations in solar activity, which is important for predicting and modeling climate shifts.

KW - age correction by modeling

KW - bog sediments

KW - correlation of climate change and solar activity

KW - cosmogenic isotopes

KW - paleoclimatic reconstruction

KW - radiocarbon dating

KW - age correction by modeling

KW - bog sediments

KW - correlation of climate change and solar activity

KW - cosmogenic isotopes

KW - paleoclimatic reconstruction

KW - radiocarbon dating

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85133798827&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/80599fca-a087-349f-8111-5dd938eaadca/

U2 - 10.26907/2542-064x.2022.1.135-165

DO - 10.26907/2542-064x.2022.1.135-165

M3 - статья

AN - SCOPUS:85133798827

VL - 164

SP - 135

EP - 165

JO - УЧЕНЫЕ ЗАПИСКИ КАЗАНСКОГО ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. СЕРИЯ: ЕСТЕСТВЕННЫЕ НАУКИ

JF - УЧЕНЫЕ ЗАПИСКИ КАЗАНСКОГО ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. СЕРИЯ: ЕСТЕСТВЕННЫЕ НАУКИ

SN - 2542-064X

IS - 1

ER -