In the context of the pandemic, imbalances have clearly manifested themselves in the global natural gas markets. Average monthly gas prices over the past two years have reached both lows and highs over the past decade. The high degree of uncertainty regarding further price dynamics is due not so much to the pandemic as to the impact of other factors. These include a variety of scenarios for the development of global energy against the background of climate change, increased geopolitical risks, as well as a number of other factors. In these conditions, the purpose of the study is relevant — to determine how different scenarios of the development of world gas markets can affect the price competitiveness of Russian gas in the future until 2030. The authors analyzed the actual prices on the main gas markets, and also compiled a consensus forecast based on more than ten authoritative sources. The costs of Russian, American and Middle Eastern exporters of natural gas were analyzed, the author's assessment of the dynamics of marginality of supplies until 2030 is given. The study takes into account the variability of global energy development based on more than ten different scenarios of its development.