Research of report of Central Bank «Influence of increasing of the basic VAT rate on inflation». Basing on experience of other countries and survey of companies about planning of rising prices as an answer of increasing VAT rate. Forecast of «how much will grow the cost of food basket» was modeled according to the Central Bank prognoses and to the author's optimistic, average and pessimistic prognoses. It was estimated how much will increase spending of the population of Russia and what share it will occupy in their income.