Predictors of new onset atrial fibrillation during 10-year follow-up after first-ever ischemic stroke

Maria A. Baturova, Arne Lindgren, Jonas Carlson, Yuri V. Shubik, S. Bertil Olsson, Pyotr G. Platonov

Результат исследований: Научные публикации в периодических изданияхстатья

14 Цитирования (Scopus)


Background: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) may be underdiagnosed in ischemic stroke patients but may be pivotal for initiation of oral anticoagulation therapy. We assessed clinical and ECG predictors of new-onset AF during 10-year follow-up (FU) in ischemic stroke patients. Methods: The study sample comprised of 227 first-ever ischemic stroke patients without AF (median age 73, interquartile range 25%-75% 63-80 years, 92 female) and 1:1 age- and gender-matched controls without stroke and AF enrolled in the Lund Stroke Register from March 2001 to February 2002. New-onset AF during FU was assessed by screening through regional ECG database and by record linkage with Swedish National Patient Register. The standard 12-lead sinus rhythm ECGs at stroke admission were retrieved from electronic database and digitally processed. Clinical baseline characteristics were studied using medical records. Results: During FU, AF was found in 39 stroke patients and 30 controls, p = 0.296. In stroke patients in multivariate Cox regression analysis AF was associated with hypertension (HR 3.45 CI 95% 1.40-3.49, p = 0.007) and QRS duration (HR 1.02 CI 95% 1.00-1.03, p = 0.049). High cardiovascular risk was predictive for AF development: for CHADS2 > 4 HR 2.46 CI 95% 1.45-4.18, p = 0.001 and for CHA2DS2-VASc > 5 HR 2.29 CI 95% 1.43-3.68, p = 0.001. New onset AF was not associated with baseline ischemic stroke: HR 1.46 95% CI 0.90-2.35, p = 0.121. Conclusion: High CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, but not baseline ischemic stroke, predict new onset AF in FU. QRS duration might be considered a potential risk marker for prediction of AF after ischemic stroke.

Язык оригиналаанглийский
Страницы (с-по)248-252
Число страниц5
ЖурналInternational Journal of Cardiology
СостояниеОпубликовано - 15 сен 2015

Предметные области Scopus

  • Кардиология и сердечно-сосудистая медицина

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