Research background: The products of the arms and military equipment market create the material basis for the country's military security. The most important segment of this market is the market of naval equipment. The acquired competencies have naturally led Russia to the role of the most important exporter in this market. The authors have repeatedly addressed the topic of Russian shipbuilding and the role of Russia in the world market of naval equipment and military ships. Purpose of the article: The main goal of the research is to analyze the current state of the market of naval equipment, the positions of its main participants and, especially, Russia. To determine the future prospects of Russia's presence in this market, it was necessary to identify the main problems of Russian shipbuilding and consider the impact of external factors on the state of the industry. Methods: Generalizations of the research are based on processing and systematization of data obtained from available information sources. Analyzing the statistics, the authors were able to deduce the trends of the current moment and determine the prospects. Findings & Value added: The analysis of key market indicators, as well as the problems of Russian shipbuilding, allowed the authors to build possible scenarios for its future development, from optimistic under favorable external factors to pessimistic, in which the loss of not only military security, but also the position of the largest exporter in the world market of naval equipment and military ships is inevitable.