Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century

Research output

Abstract

Early detection and investigation of possible collisions and close approaches of asteroids with the Earth are necessary to exept the asteroid-comet hazard. The difficulty of prediction of close approaches and collisions associated with resonant returns after encounters with the Earth due to loss of precision in these encounters. The main research object is asteroid Apophis (99942), for which we found many possible orbits of impacts associated with resonant returns. It is shown that the early orbit change of Apophis allows to avoid main impacts, associated with resonant returns. Such a change of the orbit, in principle, is feasible. We also study the possible impacts with the Ground asteroid 2015 RN35. We present 21 possible collisions in this century, including 7 collisions with large gaps presented in NASA website. The results of observations by the telescope ZA-320M at Pulkovo Obser-vatory of the three near-Earth asteroids, namely, 7822, 20826, 68216, two of which 7822 and 68216 are potentially hazardous, are presented.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication8th Polyakhov's Reading
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Mechanics
EditorsElena V. Kustova, Gennady A. Leonov, Mikhail P. Yushkov, Nikita F. Morosov, Mariia A. Mekhonoshina
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics
ISBN (Electronic)9780735416604
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 May 2018
EventВосьмые Поляховские чтения: международная научная конференция по механике - Старый Петергоф, Saint Petersburg
Duration: 29 Jan 20182 Feb 2018
Conference number: 8
https://events.spbu.ru/events/polyakhov_readings
http://nanomat.spbu.ru/en/node/175
http://nanomat.spbu.ru/ru/node/192
http://spbu.ru/news-events/calendar/viii-polyahovskie-chteniya

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume1959
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

ConferenceInternational Scientific Conference on Mechanics - Eighth Polyakhov's Reading
CountryRussian Federation
CitySaint Petersburg
Period29/01/182/02/18
Internet address

Fingerprint

asteroids
hazards
predictions
collisions
orbits
encounters
websites
comets
telescopes

Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Petrov, N., Sokolov, L., Polyakhova, E., & Oskina, K. (2018). Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century. In E. V. Kustova, G. A. Leonov, M. P. Yushkov, N. F. Morosov, & M. A. Mekhonoshina (Eds.), 8th Polyakhov's Reading: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Mechanics [040012] (AIP Conference Proceedings; Vol. 1959). American Institute of Physics. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5034615
Petrov, Nikita ; Sokolov, Leonid ; Polyakhova, Elena ; Oskina, Kristina. / Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century. 8th Polyakhov's Reading: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Mechanics. editor / Elena V. Kustova ; Gennady A. Leonov ; Mikhail P. Yushkov ; Nikita F. Morosov ; Mariia A. Mekhonoshina. American Institute of Physics, 2018. (AIP Conference Proceedings).
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abstract = "Early detection and investigation of possible collisions and close approaches of asteroids with the Earth are necessary to exept the asteroid-comet hazard. The difficulty of prediction of close approaches and collisions associated with resonant returns after encounters with the Earth due to loss of precision in these encounters. The main research object is asteroid Apophis (99942), for which we found many possible orbits of impacts associated with resonant returns. It is shown that the early orbit change of Apophis allows to avoid main impacts, associated with resonant returns. Such a change of the orbit, in principle, is feasible. We also study the possible impacts with the Ground asteroid 2015 RN35. We present 21 possible collisions in this century, including 7 collisions with large gaps presented in NASA website. The results of observations by the telescope ZA-320M at Pulkovo Obser-vatory of the three near-Earth asteroids, namely, 7822, 20826, 68216, two of which 7822 and 68216 are potentially hazardous, are presented.",
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Petrov, N, Sokolov, L, Polyakhova, E & Oskina, K 2018, Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century. in EV Kustova, GA Leonov, MP Yushkov, NF Morosov & MA Mekhonoshina (eds), 8th Polyakhov's Reading: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Mechanics., 040012, AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 1959, American Institute of Physics, Saint Petersburg, 29/01/18. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5034615

Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century. / Petrov, Nikita; Sokolov, Leonid; Polyakhova, Elena; Oskina, Kristina.

8th Polyakhov's Reading: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Mechanics. ed. / Elena V. Kustova; Gennady A. Leonov; Mikhail P. Yushkov; Nikita F. Morosov; Mariia A. Mekhonoshina. American Institute of Physics, 2018. 040012 (AIP Conference Proceedings; Vol. 1959).

Research output

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AU - Polyakhova, Elena

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PY - 2018/5/2

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N2 - Early detection and investigation of possible collisions and close approaches of asteroids with the Earth are necessary to exept the asteroid-comet hazard. The difficulty of prediction of close approaches and collisions associated with resonant returns after encounters with the Earth due to loss of precision in these encounters. The main research object is asteroid Apophis (99942), for which we found many possible orbits of impacts associated with resonant returns. It is shown that the early orbit change of Apophis allows to avoid main impacts, associated with resonant returns. Such a change of the orbit, in principle, is feasible. We also study the possible impacts with the Ground asteroid 2015 RN35. We present 21 possible collisions in this century, including 7 collisions with large gaps presented in NASA website. The results of observations by the telescope ZA-320M at Pulkovo Obser-vatory of the three near-Earth asteroids, namely, 7822, 20826, 68216, two of which 7822 and 68216 are potentially hazardous, are presented.

AB - Early detection and investigation of possible collisions and close approaches of asteroids with the Earth are necessary to exept the asteroid-comet hazard. The difficulty of prediction of close approaches and collisions associated with resonant returns after encounters with the Earth due to loss of precision in these encounters. The main research object is asteroid Apophis (99942), for which we found many possible orbits of impacts associated with resonant returns. It is shown that the early orbit change of Apophis allows to avoid main impacts, associated with resonant returns. Such a change of the orbit, in principle, is feasible. We also study the possible impacts with the Ground asteroid 2015 RN35. We present 21 possible collisions in this century, including 7 collisions with large gaps presented in NASA website. The results of observations by the telescope ZA-320M at Pulkovo Obser-vatory of the three near-Earth asteroids, namely, 7822, 20826, 68216, two of which 7822 and 68216 are potentially hazardous, are presented.

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T3 - AIP Conference Proceedings

BT - 8th Polyakhov's Reading

A2 - Kustova, Elena V.

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PB - American Institute of Physics

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Petrov N, Sokolov L, Polyakhova E, Oskina K. Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century. In Kustova EV, Leonov GA, Yushkov MP, Morosov NF, Mekhonoshina MA, editors, 8th Polyakhov's Reading: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Mechanics. American Institute of Physics. 2018. 040012. (AIP Conference Proceedings). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5034615